Syracuse vs Pittsburgh
Syracuse visit Pittsburgh in Week 3. The model favors Pittsburgh by 13. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these ACC sides by 8.3 points of rating, Pittsburgh at 10 (rank 36) against Syracuse at 1.7 (rank 67), and projects Pittsburgh by 10.7. That sits within a point of the consensus -10.5 on a 51.5 total, and both the model and the two-book market land on identical win probabilities: Pittsburgh 74 percent, Syracuse 26 percent. The ProphetX exchange prices the favorite steeper still, Pittsburgh -385 (79 percent) against Syracuse +370 (21 percent).
The unit ranks reinforce the gap. Pittsburgh's offense (#35) faces a Syracuse defense (#54), while Syracuse's offense (#84) draws the tougher assignment against Pittsburgh's #46 defense. The series leans hard one way: Pittsburgh leads 10-2, and won the 2025 meeting 30-13.
Season form fits the ratings. Pittsburgh is 2-0, blending a 59-14 rout of Miami (OH) with a 12-7 grind past UCF, and projects to 7.8 wins with a 9 percent Playoff chance. Syracuse split, crushing New Hampshire 66-3 before a 21-18 loss to California, and models out to 4.7 wins and 0.3 percent to reach the Playoff. Neither the numbers nor the market offer Syracuse much room.
Model and consensus market agree on Pittsburgh at 74 percent, with the exchange pricing the favorite a notch steeper.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Syracuse's win price; Pittsburgh's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Syracuse is favored, below it Pittsburgh is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Syracuse vs Pittsburgh game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Syracuse vs Pittsburgh market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Syracuse and Pittsburgh play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 17, 2026 at Pittsburgh.
Who is favored?
The model projects Pittsburgh by 13 (78% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Pittsburgh lead 10-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →