Kansas State vs Arizona State
Kansas State visit Arizona State in Week 8. The model favors Kansas State by 4.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Kansas State 11.9 (29th) and Arizona State 0.6 (70th), a gap that drives a projected Kansas State margin of 8.9 points and a 71% to 29% model win probability. The market is more cautious: Arizona State at +3.5 implies 42% against Kansas State's 58%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Kansas State at -154 (61%) versus Arizona State at +146 (41%). Every source favors Kansas State, though the model's edge runs wider than the consensus line or the exchange.
Unit ranks back the road team across the board: Kansas State sits 21st on offense and 41st on defense, Arizona State 69th and 68th. The thin series history cuts the other way, Arizona State holding a 1-0 edge after a 24-14 win in the 2024 meeting.
Kansas State arrives 4-2, pairing blowouts of Nicholls (71-3) and Washington State (34-7) with losses at Cincinnati (31-26) and to Houston (35-16). Arizona State is 3-3, its wins over Kansas (24-17) and Hawai'i (30-12) bracketed by lopsided defeats to Baylor (55-19) and Texas Tech (53-25). The season model projects 7.4 wins for Kansas State and 5.1 for Arizona State, with title odds of 0.6% and 0% against a 0.8% market mark for both.
Model, line and exchange all point to Kansas State, and the 8.9-point projection sits wider than the market's +3.5 on the road favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kansas State's win price; Arizona State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kansas State is favored, below it Arizona State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kansas State vs Arizona State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kansas State vs Arizona State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kansas State and Arizona State play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Arizona State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kansas State by 4.1 (60% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Arizona State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →