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Matchup preview

Colorado vs Arizona State

Colorado visit Arizona State in Week 10. The model favors Arizona State by 9.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
28%
72%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
ASU -3.2
Total (O/U)
47
Favorite
ASU
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Colorado1%-41 ptsvsArizona State99%+41 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Colorado favoredArizona State favoredOct 31Nov 2Nov 4Nov 6Nov 8

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Colorado's win price; Arizona State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Colorado is favored, below it Arizona State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 8.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#94SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#65
#77FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#44
1344EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1609
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.7%
ColoradoArizona Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Arizona State lead 6-4
20142025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
42-17
Arizona State
at Colorado
2023
27-24
Colorado
at Arizona State
2022
42-34
Arizona State
at Colorado
2021
35-13
Arizona State
at Arizona State
2019
34-31
Colorado
at Arizona State
2018
28-21
Colorado
at Colorado
2017
41-30
Arizona State
at Arizona State
2016
40-16
Colorado
at Colorado
2015
48-23
Arizona State
at Arizona State
2014
38-24
Arizona State
at Colorado
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Colorado vs Arizona State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Colorado vs Arizona State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Colorado and Arizona State play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 8, 2026 at Arizona State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Arizona State by 9.5 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Arizona State lead 6-4 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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