Arizona State vs Kansas
Arizona State meet Kansas in Week 3. The model favors Arizona State by 2.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these Big 12 sides by 3.1 points, rating Arizona State 7.8 (42nd) over Kansas 4.7 (55th) and projecting the Sun Devils by 3.1 on the neutral field. That maps to a 57 percent model edge for Arizona State against Kansas at 43 percent. The consensus of two books sits stronger, pricing Kansas at plus 5.5 for an implied 63-37 split. The market therefore leans roughly six points of win probability further toward Arizona State than the model does, with the 5.5 spread outrunning the 3.1 projected margin.
The unit ranks favor Arizona State on the defensive side, where its number 41 defense faces a Kansas offense at 48 and a Kansas defense down at 68; Arizona State's offense checks in at 50. Both teams post identical resume shapes: Arizona State routed Morgan State 70-7 then lost 20-48 at Texas A&M, while Kansas dispatched Long Island University 51-6 before falling 21-38 to Missouri. The total is set at 50.5.
The series is thin: Arizona State holds a 1-0 edge from a 35-31 win in 2024. Season projections keep both modest, Arizona State at 6 wins, 3.8 percent to reach the Playoff and 0.1 percent for the title against market title odds of 0.7 percent, and Kansas at 5.6 wins, 1.9 percent Playoff and 0 percent title.
Model and market both favor Arizona State, but the plus 5.5 line prices the Sun Devils firmer than the 3.1-point projection warrants.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Arizona State's win price; Kansas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Arizona State is favored, below it Kansas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Arizona State vs Kansas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Arizona State vs Kansas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Arizona State and Kansas play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at a neutral site.
Who is favored?
The model projects Arizona State by 2.3 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Arizona State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →