Arizona State vs BYU
Arizona State visit BYU in Week 9. The model favors BYU by 16.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates BYU 16.7 (13th) against Arizona State's 2.3 (62nd), projecting BYU by 16.8 and an 85 percent win probability. The consensus line of BYU -16.2 and an 84 percent implied edge track the model almost exactly, with the ProphetX exchange slightly steeper at -660, or 87 percent. There is no real model-market disagreement to exploit: all three sources price the same roughly six-to-one favorite.
The unit ranks explain the margin. BYU pairs a 20th-ranked offense with a 20th-ranked defense, while Arizona State sits 66th and 53rd. Form reinforces the split: BYU is 6-1, its only loss 31-39 at UCF, with wins over Arizona, TCU, Iowa State and Notre Dame. Arizona State is 4-3 and volatile, alternating wins against Kansas and Kansas State with losses by 36 at Baylor and 28 at Texas Tech.
Season outlooks diverge sharply: BYU projects 9.2 wins and a 37.1 percent Playoff chance, Arizona State 5.9 wins and 0.3 percent. The series is even at 1-1, and Arizona State took the last meeting 28-23 in 2024, the lone thread arguing the number should not run further.
The model and market sit within a point of each other on a BYU favorite, and the ratings gap backs it.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Arizona State's win price; BYU's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Arizona State is favored, below it BYU is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Arizona State vs BYU game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Arizona State vs BYU market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Arizona State and BYU play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at BYU.
Who is favored?
The model projects BYU by 16.8 (85% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →