Arizona State vs Texas Tech
Arizona State visit Texas Tech in Week 7. The model favors Texas Tech by 18.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Texas Tech at 21.6 (rank 10) against Arizona State at 3.6 (rank 59), a projected margin of Texas Tech by 20.4 and an 89% model win probability. The market is more cautious, pricing the Red Raiders at -14.5 with an 81% implied probability, and the ProphetX exchange sits near -570 at 85%. The roughly six-point gap between the model number and the consensus line is the central disagreement to trade around.
The unit ratings reinforce the lean. Texas Tech ranks #13 on offense and #12 on defense, a balanced profile, while Arizona State sits at #66 and #48. Form tracks the ratings: Texas Tech is unbeaten through five, including 35-24 at Oregon State and 29-7 at Colorado. Arizona State is 3-2, blown out 20-48 at Texas A&M and 19-55 against Baylor, with its wins over Kansas (24-17) and Hawai'i (30-12) narrower.
The series adds a counterweight: level at 2-2, with Arizona State taking the 2025 meeting 26-22. Season-long, the simulations separate the programs sharply, Texas Tech at 9.9 projected wins and 55.2% to make the Playoff versus Arizona State at 5.6 wins and 0.5%. The recent head-to-head is the one data point arguing against a full fade of the underdog at +520.
Model sees Texas Tech by 20.4 and 89%, well clear of the market's -14.5 and 81%, with only a level series offering the underdog any case.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Arizona State's win price; Texas Tech's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Arizona State is favored, below it Texas Tech is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Arizona State vs Texas Tech game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Arizona State vs Texas Tech market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Arizona State and Texas Tech play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Texas Tech.
Who is favored?
The model projects Texas Tech by 18.5 (87% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 2-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →