Alabama vs Tennessee
Alabama visit Tennessee in Week 7. The model favors Alabama by 0.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 6.3 points, rating Alabama 23 (eighth) against Tennessee at 16.7 (fifteenth), and translates that into a 3.9-point projected Alabama margin with a 59% win probability. The market is far less convinced of a close game. The consensus line of Tennessee +8.5 implies Alabama at 70%, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to Alabama -325, or 76%, against Tennessee +300 at 25%. That leaves the model holding Tennessee at 41% while traders price the Volunteers between 25% and 30%, the central gap in this matchup.
The unit ranks explain the lean without supporting the spread. Alabama grades out ahead on both sides, offense fifth to Tennessee's 21st and defense 16th to 23rd, edges that align with a mid-single-digit number rather than 8.5. Series history reinforces the favorite: Alabama holds a 10-2 record and won the 2025 meeting 37-20.
Form is similar. Alabama sits 5-1, its lone loss 17-20 to Georgia after scoring 45-plus five times. Tennessee is also 5-1, losing 17-20 to Texas, with subsequent wins over Auburn and at Arkansas.
The model keeps this inside a touchdown while the market prices a near-blowout: the disagreement is all on Tennessee's side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Alabama's win price; Tennessee's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Alabama is favored, below it Tennessee is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Alabama vs Tennessee game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Alabama vs Tennessee market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Alabama and Tennessee play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Tennessee.
Who is favored?
The model projects Alabama by 0.6 (51% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Alabama lead 10-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →