Alabama vs Kentucky
Alabama visit Kentucky in Week 2. The model favors Alabama by 10.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Alabama 20 (11th) against Kentucky at 8.5 (39th), a gap that translates to a projected Alabama margin of 9.1 points and a 71% model win probability. The consensus market line of Kentucky +10.5 leans slightly harder on Alabama, pricing the favorite at 74%, while the ProphetX exchange stretches further to Alabama -380, an implied 79%. So the disagreement is one of degree: the model likes Alabama by a touchdown-plus, the exchange treats it closer to a lock.
The unit ranks explain the edge. Alabama pairs the 22nd offense with the 5th defense, while Kentucky sits 51st on offense and 28th on defense. That defensive separation is the core of the number. Series history reinforces it: Alabama holds a 3-0 record and won the last meeting in 2023 by 49-21. Both teams enter 2-0 in spirit after openers, Alabama 48-10 over East Carolina and Kentucky 45-13 over Youngstown State, results that pad confidence without testing either side against SEC quality.
Season-long, the simulation projects 7.6 wins and a 28.7% Playoff chance for Alabama versus 5.4 wins and 2.6% for Kentucky, a hierarchy the single-game price mirrors closely.
Model and market agree Alabama is the clear side; the exchange's 79% just prices the defensive gap more aggressively than SP+.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Alabama's win price; Kentucky's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Alabama is favored, below it Kentucky is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Alabama vs Kentucky game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Alabama vs Kentucky market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Alabama and Kentucky play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Kentucky.
Who is favored?
The model projects Alabama by 10.6 (74% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Alabama lead 3-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →