East Carolina vs Alabama
East Carolina visit Alabama in Week 1. The model favors Alabama by 27.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ pegs this as a mismatch: Alabama rates 17.6 (13th) against East Carolina at -2.3 (80th), a gap that projects a 22.3-point Alabama margin and a 91% win probability. The market prices it steeper, with a consensus line of Alabama -27.7 and a 95% implied win probability, while the ProphetX exchange stretches further to -3300, or 97%. That five-to-six point spread between the model margin and the market line is the central disagreement: the model sees a comfortable favorite, the market sees closer to a rout.
The unit ranks explain the pricing pressure. Alabama's defense (6th) faces an East Carolina offense ranked 85th, and Alabama's offense (32nd) draws a 73rd-ranked defense. The imbalance favors the market's wider number more than the model's, and the total of 52.5 leaves room for either read. Season projections tighten the picture only slightly: both teams sit near seven wins (7.4 for Alabama, 7.3 for East Carolina), but the Playoff and title paths diverge sharply, with Alabama at 24.2% to make the field and 1.7% to win it against East Carolina's 4.1% and 0%.
Model and market agree Alabama wins big; the live gap is whether the true margin is nearer 22 or 28.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as East Carolina's win price; Alabama's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line East Carolina is favored, below it Alabama is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the East Carolina vs Alabama game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the East Carolina vs Alabama market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do East Carolina and Alabama play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Alabama.
Who is favored?
The model projects Alabama by 27.5 (95% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →