Alabama vs LSU
Alabama visit LSU in Week 10. The model favors LSU by 6.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 4.3 points, rating LSU 25.2 (third) against Alabama's 20.9 (seventh), and the projection has LSU by 6.7. The market agrees on direction but prices it shorter: LSU -5.5 with a 52.5 total, implying 63% for the home side against the model's 66%. The ProphetX exchange pushes further, with LSU at -210 (68%) and Alabama at +200 (33%). All three measures point the same way, with the model's margin the most aggressive of the set.
The unit ranks explain the edge. LSU grades fifth on both offense and defense, while Alabama pairs a seventh-ranked offense with a defense down at 14th. That defensive gap is where the ratings separation lives. Series history cuts the other way: Alabama holds a 10-2 lead and took the 2025 meeting 20-9, context the model does not price.
Results sharpen the picture. LSU is 6-2 with shutout-level wins over Mississippi State (31-0) and Clemson (51-10), but lost at Ole Miss and at Kentucky by a single point. Alabama is 6-2, routing five opponents by 24 or more before losses to Georgia (17-20) and at Tennessee (10-26). Both arrive with two defeats, and the market's 5.5 sits inside the model's number.
Model, consensus line and exchange all lean LSU, with the 6.7-point projection sitting just past the market's 5.5.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Alabama's win price; LSU's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Alabama is favored, below it LSU is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Alabama vs LSU game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Alabama vs LSU market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Alabama and LSU play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at LSU.
Who is favored?
The model projects LSU by 6.7 (66% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Alabama lead 10-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →