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Matchup preview

Alabama vs LSU

Alabama visit LSU in Week 10. The model favors LSU by 3.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
42%
58%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
LSU -3.5
Total (O/U)
54.5
Favorite
LSU
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
LSU
58%

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#11SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#9
#10FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#26
1857EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1675
1.6%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.4.4%
AlabamaLSUsolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Alabama lead 10-2
Alabama have won the last 3
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
20-9
Alabama
at Alabama
2024
42-13
Alabama
at LSU
2023
42-28
Alabama
at Alabama
2022
32-31
LSU
at LSU
2021
20-14
Alabama
at Alabama
2020
55-17
Alabama
at LSU
2019
46-41
LSU
at Alabama
2018
29-0
Alabama
at LSU
2017
24-10
Alabama
at Alabama
2016
10-0
Alabama
at LSU
2015
30-16
Alabama
at Alabama
2014
20-13
Alabama
at LSU
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Alabama vs LSU game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Alabama vs LSU market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Alabama and LSU play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at LSU.

Who is favored?

The model projects LSU by 3.2 (58% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Alabama lead 10-2 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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