Florida State vs Alabama
Florida State visit Alabama in Week 3. The model favors Alabama by 16.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 13.5 rating points, Alabama at 21.2 (10th) against Florida State at 7.7 (44th), and the unit ranks widen the gap: Alabama's defense grades 3rd to Florida State's 45th, with the offenses at 20th and 48th. That produces an 83% model win probability and a projected Alabama margin of 15.9 points. The market prices the Tide harder, laying 19.7 with an 88% implied number, and the ProphetX exchange goes further still at Alabama -1100, an implied 92% versus Florida State +940 at 10%.
The disagreement is the story. The model's 15.9-point projection sits nearly four points inside the consensus 19.7, and its 17% for Florida State runs above the 12% market number and the exchange's 10%. Series history is thin but pointed: the teams split 1-1, and in the last meeting in 2025 Florida State won 31-17. Season simulations still favor Alabama broadly, 8.1 projected wins, 34.4% Playoff, against Florida State's 5.7 wins and 1.9%.
Early results cut both ways. Alabama has posted 48-10 over East Carolina and 45-17 at Kentucky, while Florida State beat New Mexico State 34-17 before losing 24-27 to SMU. The form supports the ratings gap, but the spread between model and market leaves the underside more interesting than the price implies.
Alabama controls the ratings and the units, but the model's 15.9-point margin lands well short of the market's 19.7, nudging value toward Florida State.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Florida State's win price; Alabama's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Florida State is favored, below it Alabama is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Florida State vs Alabama game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Florida State vs Alabama market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Florida State and Alabama play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Alabama.
Who is favored?
The model projects Alabama by 16.4 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →