Washington State vs Washington
Washington State visit Washington in Week 1. The model favors Washington by 20.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market read this Week 1 crossover the same way. SP+ rates Washington 15.8 (18th) against Washington State's -4.3 (86th), a gap that projects Washington by 22.5 points and a 91% win probability. The consensus line lands close, at Washington -23.2 with a 50.8 total and a 92% implied price. ProphetX offers split the favorite and underdog sides at 94% and 8%, effectively no daylight from the model. When SP+, two-book consensus, and the exchange cluster inside a point of win probability, there is little edge to mine from disagreement.
The unit ranks explain the spread. Washington grades 18th on offense and 17th on defense, balanced on both sides, while Washington State sits 107th on offense and 58th on defense, the offensive shortfall driving the margin. The series backs the ratings: Washington leads 9-2 and won the last meeting 59-24 in 2025. Season simulations widen the divide, with Washington projected for 7.5 wins, a 20% Playoff chance and 1.2% title equity against a 0.7% market read, versus 4.9 wins and 0.1% Playoff odds for Washington State.
Everything points one direction, so the question is price rather than side. At a 22.5-point projected margin against a 23.2-point market number, the model leaves a slim cushion on the underdog's cover, but the moneyline offers no value with all three sources near 92%.
Model, consensus, and exchange all price Washington near 92%, with the only faint edge sitting on Washington State's cover of the inflated 23.2-point number.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Washington State's win price; Washington's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Washington State is favored, below it Washington is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Washington State vs Washington game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Washington State vs Washington market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Washington State and Washington play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 6, 2026 at Washington.
Who is favored?
The model projects Washington by 20.8 (90% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Washington lead 9-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →