Utah State vs Washington
Utah State visit Washington in Week 2. The model favors Washington by 24.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a clear separation: Washington rates 12 (29th) against Utah State at -11.5 (108th), a gap that projects the Huskies by 25.9 points and assigns them a 94% win probability. The market sits a shade firmer, pricing Washington -26.5 with the ProphetX exchange showing -2600 (implied 96%) and Utah State at +1950 (implied 5%). Model and market align tightly on the outcome, with the consensus line landing just above the projected margin and the total set at 55.5.
The unit ranks explain the spread. Washington's defense (22nd) and offense (40th) both outrank every Utah State group, with the Aggies carrying the 104th offense and 106th defense. The season projections widen the divide further: Washington simulates to 6.9 wins with an 8.5% Playoff chance, against 3.5 wins and 0.1% for Utah State. Market title odds for Washington sit at 0.7% versus the model's 0.4%.
Series history is thin: Utah State is 0-1 against Washington, the lone meeting a 31-17 Washington win in 2015. Early results reinforce the ratings. Washington opened with a 24-10 win over Washington State, while Utah State dropped its opener 17-29 to Idaho State. Both data points track the model's read that the class gap here is real.
Model and market agree hard on Washington, and the ratings, projections and Week 1 results all point the same direction.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Utah State's win price; Washington's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Utah State is favored, below it Washington is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Utah State vs Washington game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Utah State vs Washington market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Utah State and Washington play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Washington.
Who is favored?
The model projects Washington by 24.5 (93% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Washington lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →