Iowa vs Washington
Iowa visit Washington in Week 6. The model favors Iowa by 0.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ reads this as a coin flip, rating Iowa 14.8 (19th) against Washington 12.1 (29th) and projecting Washington by -0.3, which makes Iowa the narrowest of favorites at a 51% win probability. The market sees it differently. The consensus line sets Washington -3.5 with an implied 58%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Washington at -156, or 61%, against Iowa +150 at 40%. That is a wide split between model and price.
The ratings separation is slim, 2.7 points, and the unit profile frames the tension. Iowa's defense ranks 10th against Washington's 18th, while Washington's offense sits 45th to Iowa's 51st. The series adds a single data point, Iowa's 40-16 win in the 2024 meeting.
Results give more texture. Iowa is 4-1, with shutouts of Northern Illinois (40-0) and Northern Iowa (55-0), a 20-19 win at Michigan, and a 14-31 loss to Ohio State. Washington is 3-2, with narrow results against Utah State (16-14), Minnesota (24-27) and USC (21-25). The posted total is 41.8.
Model and market split hard: SP+ sees a coin flip leaning Iowa, while the price demands Washington -3.5.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Iowa vs Washington game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Iowa vs Washington market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Iowa and Washington play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Washington.
Who is favored?
The model projects Iowa by 0.5 (51% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Iowa lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →