Penn State vs Washington
Penn State visit Washington in Week 10. The model favors Washington by 2.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market read this one the same way. SP+ separates the sides by two tenths of a point, 9.5 for Washington (rank 35) against 9.3 for Penn State (rank 36), and projects Washington by 2.6. That maps almost exactly onto the consensus -2.5 and the 44.5 total, with both pricing Washington at 56% and Penn State at 44%. The ProphetX exchange sits a touch tighter, Washington -123 (55%) and Penn State +122 (45%). Unit ranks favor Penn State's defense at #27 over Washington's #30, while Washington's offense (#49) edges Penn State's (#53), a narrow trade in both directions.
Recent form muddies the ratings' near-tie. Both opened 3-0 against lighter opposition before stumbling, but Washington has won its last two, 38-26 at Purdue and 17-10 at Nebraska, while Penn State went 1-4 across a midseason stretch before beating Purdue 31-17. The series cuts the other way: Penn State is 2-0 all-time and took the 2024 meeting 35-6. Season simulations give Washington the longer reach, 6.9 projected wins and 3.4% to make the Playoff versus Penn State's 6.5 and 1.9%, though the market ties both titles at 0.7%.
A genuine coin flip: SP+, the -2.5 line and the exchange all land on Washington near 55-56%, with Penn State's defense and series edge the counterweight.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Penn State's win price; Washington's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Penn State is favored, below it Washington is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Penn State vs Washington game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Penn State vs Washington market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Penn State and Washington play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Washington.
Who is favored?
The model projects Washington by 2.6 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Penn State lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →