Washington vs Purdue
Washington visit Purdue in Week 7. The model favors Washington by 6.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market sit on opposite sides here. SP+ rates Washington 7.1 (51st) against Purdue 1.6 (62nd) and projects the road team by 3.1, pricing Washington at 57 percent. The consensus line flips that read, posting Purdue -3.5 and an implied 58 percent, with the ProphetX exchange leaning further to Purdue -162 (62 percent) versus Washington +156 (39 percent). That is close to a 15-point probability gap between the model and the traded price, an unusually wide disagreement on a near coin-flip.
The unit breakdown frames the clash: Washington's defense (32nd) faces a Purdue offense ranked 42nd, while the Boilermaker defense (100th) is the weakest number on the board and draws Washington's 59th-ranked offense. The lone series meeting went to Washington 49-13 in 2025. Both teams enter 3-3: Washington beat Washington State, Utah State and Eastern Washington before losing to Minnesota, USC and Iowa, while Purdue mixed wins over Indiana State, Illinois and Minnesota (41-13) with losses to Wake Forest, UCLA and Notre Dame (10-49).
Season simulations keep the two even, 5.4 projected wins for Washington and 5.2 for Purdue, with Playoff odds of 0.7 and 0.2 percent and no title equity for either. With the total set at 51.8, the live question is whether the market's home lean or the model's road edge holds.
Model backs Washington at 57 percent, but the market prices Purdue near 60, leaving a wide gap on a coin-flip game.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Washington's win price; Purdue's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Washington is favored, below it Purdue is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Washington vs Purdue game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Washington vs Purdue market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Washington and Purdue play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Purdue.
Who is favored?
The model projects Washington by 6.9 (66% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Washington lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →