Marshall vs Penn State
Marshall visit Penn State in Week 1. The model favors Penn State by 25.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these programs cleanly: Penn State rates 16.2 (17th) against Marshall at -8.2 (98th), a gap of 24.4 points that maps almost directly onto the projected margin of 26.8. The model puts Penn State at 95% to win, and the market agrees, with the consensus line at -24.2 and an implied 93%. On the ProphetX exchange, Penn State sits at -1800 (implied 95%) with Marshall offered at +1400 (7%). The disagreement is narrow: the model's 26.8-point projection runs 2.6 points ahead of the market's 24.2, the lone place daylight shows.
The unit ranks reinforce the tiering. Penn State grades 14th on offense and 22nd on defense; Marshall checks in at 60th on offense and 127th on defense, the number that most directly threatens the total of 52.3. Season simulations extend the split: across 10,000 runs Penn State projects 8.3 wins, 26.8% to reach the Playoff and 1.5% to win the title against market title odds of 1.1%. Marshall projects 7.3 wins, 1.3% to make the Playoff and 0% to win it all.
The model, the consensus line, and the exchange all price Penn State as a comfortable favorite, with the only edge on the margin.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Marshall's win price; Penn State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Marshall is favored, below it Penn State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Marshall vs Penn State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Marshall vs Penn State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Marshall and Penn State play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Penn State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Penn State by 25.2 (94% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →