Purdue vs Penn State
Purdue visit Penn State in Week 9. The model favors Penn State by 11.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by just over nine points of rating, 9.3 for Penn State against 0.2 for Purdue, and ranks the hosts 36th to Purdue's 69th. That gap drives a projected Penn State margin of 11.5 points and a 76% model win probability. Both numbers sit north of the market: the consensus line of Penn State -7.7 implies 68%, and the ProphetX exchange prices the hosts at -280, or 74%. The model is the most bullish read on Penn State in the room, with roughly eight points of win-probability daylight over the posted line.
The unit ranks explain the lean. Penn State's defense rates 27th against a Purdue defense down at 101st, and that mismatch outweighs near-level offenses, Purdue 46th to Penn State 53rd. Series history reinforces it: Penn State holds a 4-0 edge and took the 2024 meeting 49-10. Season form is messier. Purdue sits at 4.7 projected wins and has beaten Illinois and Minnesota, while Penn State, at 6.2 projected wins, opened 3-0 before dropping four straight, including 18-21 at Michigan and 13-34 at Northwestern.
Playoff math stays thin on both sides: Penn State 2.2% to reach the field and 0.1% to win it, against market title odds of 0.8%, with Purdue at 0.1% and 0%. The total of 54.5 frames a moderate scoring expectation.
The model's 11.5-point, 76% Penn State lean runs ahead of a -7.7 line and a 74% exchange price, so the edge, if any, is on the favorite.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Purdue's win price; Penn State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Purdue is favored, below it Penn State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Purdue vs Penn State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Purdue vs Penn State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Purdue and Penn State play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Penn State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Penn State by 11.5 (76% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Penn State lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →