Wisconsin vs Penn State
Wisconsin visit Penn State in Week 4. The model favors Penn State by 16.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates Penn State 19.1 (12th) well clear of Wisconsin's 5.1 (56th), projecting the Nittany Lions by 16.4 with an 84% win probability. The consensus market is more cautious at Penn State -10 on a 44.8 total, implying 73%, while the ProphetX exchange sits between the two at 78% on the -350 offer against Wisconsin's +330. The model is the outlier, projecting a margin well beyond the market's ten-point spread.
Unit ranks favor the home side across the board: Penn State grades 14th on both offense and defense, while Wisconsin pairs a 21st-ranked defense with a 90th offense, the clear pressure point. Series history backs the model read, with Penn State 4-0 all time and a 28-13 win in the 2024 meeting. Early form is mixed for the picture: Wisconsin lost 13-41 at Notre Dame before handling Western Illinois 36-9 and Eastern Michigan 54-10, while Penn State swept its openers over Marshall 45-0, Temple 27-9 and Buffalo 55-13.
Simulations project nine wins for Penn State and a 37.4% Playoff chance, though the market prices its title odds at 1.2% against the model's 2.8%. Wisconsin projects six wins and 1.5% to reach the Playoff, framing this as a step up in class the numbers do not expect it to clear.
The model likes Penn State more than either market, projecting 16.4 points where the spread holds at ten and the exchange implies 78%.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Wisconsin's win price; Penn State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Wisconsin is favored, below it Penn State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Wisconsin vs Penn State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Wisconsin vs Penn State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Wisconsin and Penn State play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Penn State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Penn State by 16.4 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Penn State lead 4-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →