Penn State vs Temple
Penn State visit Temple in Week 2. The model favors Penn State by 23.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by nearly 25 rating points, Penn State at 19.8 (13th) against Temple at -4.9 (84th), and the model turns that into a projected Penn State margin of 22.3 with a 91% win probability. The consensus line sits a touch wider at Temple +24.3, and the implied 93% plus the ProphetX offer of Penn State -1850 (95%) push the price further toward the favorite. The disagreement is small and one-directional: the market prices Penn State a few points stronger than the model does, so the value, if any, leans toward the number rather than the side.
The unit splits reinforce the gap. Penn State grades 11th on offense and 14th on defense, while Temple sits 60th and 107th, and the total of 49.8 frames the scoring expectation. The series is close historically at 2-1 Penn State, but the last meeting was a 34-27 result back in 2016. Early returns favor the chalk: Penn State opened with a 45-0 shutout of Marshall, Temple beat Rhode Island 38-14. Season-long, the simulation projects 8.9 Penn State wins against 6.5 for Temple, with Playoff odds of 40.1% versus 1.3%.
Model and market both bury Temple: the only edge is a couple points of margin the model shaves off the consensus spread.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Penn State's win price; Temple's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Penn State is favored, below it Temple is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Penn State vs Temple game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Penn State vs Temple market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Penn State and Temple play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Temple.
Who is favored?
The model projects Penn State by 23.2 (92% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Penn State lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →