Missouri vs Ole Miss
Missouri visit Ole Miss in Week 7. The model favors Ole Miss by 2.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ sees a coin flip: Ole Miss by 0.3 points, a 51% win probability against Missouri's 49%. The market disagrees sharply, pricing Ole Miss -6 with a 64% implied edge, and the ProphetX exchange leans further to 66% (Missouri +186, implied 35%). That gap between a model calling it even and a market laying nearly a touchdown is the central tension here, with the total set at 58.8.
The ratings are close: Missouri 18 (13th) versus Ole Miss 15.9 (16th), a 2.1-point edge to the visitor that contradicts the line. The unit splits explain the clash. Ole Miss offense ranks 6th against a Missouri defense ranked 10th, while Missouri offense (33rd) faces an Ole Miss defense down at 55th. Series history is thin: Missouri leads 1-0, winning the last meeting 38-27 back in 2019.
Resumes read differently than the price suggests. Missouri sits 5-1, with a 45-17 win over Florida and a 27-6 win over Texas A&M, its lone loss 24-31 at Mississippi State. Ole Miss is 4-1, including 32-24 over LSU and 52-17 at Vanderbilt, but was blown out 28-52 at Florida, the same Florida Missouri handled. Season simulations give Missouri 8.3 projected wins to Ole Miss's 7.9.
The model calls it a toss-up and ratings favor Missouri, yet the market lays Ole Miss nearly a touchdown: a wide model-versus-price gap.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Missouri's win price; Ole Miss's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Missouri is favored, below it Ole Miss is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Missouri vs Ole Miss game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Missouri vs Ole Miss market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Missouri and Ole Miss play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Ole Miss.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ole Miss by 2.9 (57% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Missouri lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →