LSU vs Ole Miss
LSU visit Ole Miss in Week 3. The model favors LSU by 2.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ and the market draw the same line and read it in opposite directions. The model rates LSU at 20.4 (rank 10) against Ole Miss at 16.5 (rank 16), a near four-point edge that translates to a 54% LSU win probability and a projected Ole Miss margin of -1.5, meaning LSU favored. The consensus line inverts that: Ole Miss -1.5, implied 54% for the home side. Identical number, flipped favorite.
The unit ranks explain the gap. LSU pairs the #3 defense with the #21 offense, while Ole Miss counters with the #11 offense and the #26 defense. That defensive disparity is what pushes the model toward LSU even as the market leans Ole Miss, with a posted total of 57.5. Series history sits with LSU 8-4, though the last meeting in 2025 went to Ole Miss 24-19.
Longer view: LSU projects to 8 wins, 36.9% to make the Playoff and 2.9% to win the title against 5.1% market odds. Ole Miss projects to 7.1 wins, 19.4% Playoff and 1.4% title versus 1.1% priced.
The model and market split on the same 1.5-point margin, with LSU's defense the tiebreaker the price ignores.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as LSU's win price; Ole Miss's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line LSU is favored, below it Ole Miss is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the LSU vs Ole Miss game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the LSU vs Ole Miss market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do LSU and Ole Miss play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Ole Miss.
Who is favored?
The model projects LSU by 2.3 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
LSU lead 8-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →