Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt
Ole Miss visit Vanderbilt in Week 6. The model favors Ole Miss by 13.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ sees a close game: Ole Miss rates 11.1 (32nd) against Vanderbilt at 7.5 (48th), a 3.6-point edge that translates to a projected Ole Miss margin of just 1.2 and a 53% win probability. The market disagrees sharply. The consensus line sets Vanderbilt +9.8 with a 57.3 total, implying 72% for Ole Miss, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to Ole Miss -335, or 77%. That leaves roughly 20 points of win-probability daylight between model and price.
The unit ranks frame the matchup as a mismatch of strengths: Ole Miss offense #12 attacks a Vanderbilt defense #45, while Vanderbilt offense #46 faces an Ole Miss defense ranked only #75. The series adds history on Ole Miss's side at 8-2, including a 33-7 result in the 2023 meeting.
Results give the market some basis. Ole Miss sits at 41-38 over Louisville, 41-9 over Charlotte and 32-24 over LSU, with a 28-52 loss at Florida. Vanderbilt has wins of 28-9, 35-26 and 35-31 but losses of 15-21 at Auburn and 14-38 at Georgia. Season simulations project 7 wins for Ole Miss and 5.9 for Vanderbilt, with title odds of 0.4% and 0.1% respectively.
The model calls this a near coin flip while the market prices Ole Miss as a comfortable road favorite: a gap too wide to ignore.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Ole Miss's win price; Vanderbilt's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Ole Miss is favored, below it Vanderbilt is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Ole Miss and Vanderbilt play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Vanderbilt.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ole Miss by 13.7 (80% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ole Miss lead 8-2 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →