Auburn vs Ole Miss
Auburn visit Ole Miss in Week 9. The model favors Ole Miss by 10.6. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these SEC sides by 8.2 points, rating Ole Miss 14.7 (16th) against Auburn's 6.5 (51st) and translating to a 74% Ole Miss win probability on a projected 10.6-point margin. The consensus line sits heavier at Ole Miss -13.2, implying 79%, and the ProphetX exchange prices the Rebels at -455 (82%) with Auburn +420 (19%). Every layer favors the home side, though the market stretches roughly three points past the model.
Unit ranks explain the lean: Ole Miss fields the No. 7 offense against an Auburn defense ranked 31st, while Auburn's 72nd offense meets a softer Ole Miss defense at 48th. The series tilts Auburn 7-3, but the most recent meeting went Ole Miss 28-21 in 2023.
Auburn sits 4-3, pairing a 27-24 win at Georgia with losses to Florida (39-44), Tennessee (14-24) and LSU (17-38). Ole Miss is 5-2, beating LSU 32-24 and Missouri 31-3 but falling 28-52 at Florida and 27-34 at Texas. Simulations project 8.2 wins and an 18.3% Playoff chance for Ole Miss against 6.6 and 1.4% for Auburn.
Model and market both back Ole Miss, with the consensus line sitting about three points past SP+'s 10.6-point projection.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Auburn's win price; Ole Miss's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Auburn is favored, below it Ole Miss is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Auburn vs Ole Miss game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Auburn vs Ole Miss market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Auburn and Ole Miss play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Ole Miss.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ole Miss by 10.6 (74% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Auburn lead 7-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →