Louisville vs Ole Miss
Louisville meet Ole Miss in Week 1. The model favors Ole Miss by 2.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams by 5.4 rating points, 16.5 for Ole Miss (16th) against 11.1 for Louisville (27th), and translates that into a 63% Ole Miss win probability with a projected margin of 5.4 on a neutral field. The consensus market sits a shade heavier at Ole Miss -6.5 and an implied 65%, so the disagreement is narrow: one point of margin and two points of probability. The total is set at 55.5.
The unit ranks locate the edge. Ole Miss offense grades 11th to Louisville's 38th, the widest split in the matchup, while the defenses sit close, 26th for Ole Miss and 27th for Louisville. Louisville's stronger side is a defense that rates one spot better than the host's. Series history is thin and one-sided: Louisville is 0-1 against Ole Miss, the lone meeting a 43-24 Ole Miss win in 2021.
Season-long, the projections nearly converge on wins, 7.4 for Louisville and 7.1 for Ole Miss, but Ole Miss carries the better Playoff odds (19.2% to 14.8%) and title equity, 1.1% to 0.5%, with the market pricing both title numbers higher at 1.9% and 0.7%.
Model and market both lean Ole Miss by a field goal, with a two-point probability gap the only real tension on a neutral field.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Louisville's win price; Ole Miss's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Louisville is favored, below it Ole Miss is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Louisville vs Ole Miss game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Louisville vs Ole Miss market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Louisville and Ole Miss play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 6, 2026 at a neutral site.
Who is favored?
The model projects Ole Miss by 2.3 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Ole Miss lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →