LSU vs Auburn
LSU visit Auburn in Week 8. The model favors LSU by 16.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ puts a wide gap between these SEC sides: LSU at 22.6 (sixth) against Auburn at 8.9 (42nd), good for a projected LSU margin of 11.3 and a 75% model win probability. The market is more cautious, pricing Auburn +7.5 for an implied 32%, while the ProphetX exchange sits closer to the model with LSU at -260 (72%) and Auburn at +250 (29%). The model reads this as more lopsided than the consensus 7.5 line suggests.
The unit ranks explain the lean. LSU pairs the number 10 offense with the number 7 defense, while Auburn leans on a number 24 defense that has to carry a number 67 offense. Results back the ratings: LSU is 5-2 with wins over Clemson 51-10 and Texas A&M 35-6 and a shutout of Mississippi State 31-0, its losses by 8 at Ole Miss and 1 at Kentucky. Auburn is 4-2 but with thin margins, a 17-16 win over Baylor and a 27-24 result at Georgia alongside losses to Florida and Tennessee.
Series history favors LSU 6-4, and the last meeting in 2023 went 48-18 for LSU. Season simulations separate the programs further: LSU projects 8.2 wins with 43.3% Playoff odds and a 4.8% title number against a 4.3% market, while Auburn projects 7.1 wins, 3.8% Playoff and 0.2% title.
Model and exchange both favor LSU near 72-75%, well clear of the market's 68%, with the ratings and unit edges pointing the same way.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as LSU's win price; Auburn's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line LSU is favored, below it Auburn is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the LSU vs Auburn game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the LSU vs Auburn market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do LSU and Auburn play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at Auburn.
Who is favored?
The model projects LSU by 16.3 (84% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
LSU lead 6-4 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →