Florida State vs Louisville

The model sits firmly on Louisville. SP+ rates the Cardinals 9.9 (36th) against Florida State at 5.7 (53rd), a 4.2-point rating edge that projects to a 6.6-point margin and a 66% win probability. The market is more cautious: the consensus line of Louisville -3.5 implies 58%, and the ProphetX exchange prices the Cardinals at -166, or 62%. That leaves the model roughly four to eight points of probability ahead of where contracts are trading, so the disagreement runs toward Louisville being underpriced rather than toward Florida State.

Unit ranks frame the total of 59.5. Louisville's offense (19th) draws a Florida State defense ranked 74th, while the Seminoles' 35th-rated offense meets a Louisville defense at 66th, pointing to scoring on both sides. Results cut the other way: Florida State is 3-2 with wins over Virginia (38-7) and losses at Alabama (36-50) and to SMU (24-27), while Louisville is 2-3, having dropped three straight by three points each at NC State (28-31), to Wake Forest (27-30) and at Ole Miss (38-41). The series favors Florida State 6-4, and the Seminoles took the last meeting 16-6 in 2023.

The model backs Louisville harder than the market, pricing a 66% favorite the exchange holds at 62%, against a 2-3 team with three one-score losses.

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.