Stanford vs Louisville
Stanford visit Louisville in Week 9. The model favors Louisville by 25.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these ACC teams by 23 points, rating Louisville 12.2 (rank 25) against Stanford's -10.8 (rank 112), and projects a 25.4-point home win at 94%. The consensus line is tighter at Louisville -22.5, implying 91%, with the total at 60.3. The ProphetX exchange offers Louisville -1500 and Stanford +1250, pricing the home side at 94% and the visitor at 7%. Model and exchange align; the two-book line is the lone softer read.
The gap traces to the units. Louisville's offense ranks #6 and meets a Stanford defense at #114, a mismatch the projected margin reflects. Stanford's #106 offense draws Louisville's #61 defense, the one lane where the visitor sits closer to even.
Resumes diverge. Stanford is 4-4 with blowout losses at Wake Forest (3-57) and Notre Dame (7-58) but a recent win over NC State (31-28). Louisville is 4-3, having beaten Florida State 44-20 and SMU 41-31. The only series meeting went Stanford's way, 38-35 in 2024, the single data point favoring the underdog against a season projection of 4.9 wins versus Louisville's 7.2.
Model and exchange both price Louisville near 94%; only a 2024 upset and the -22.5 consensus line give the underdog any daylight.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Stanford's win price; Louisville's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Stanford is favored, below it Louisville is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Stanford vs Louisville game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Stanford vs Louisville market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Stanford and Louisville play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Louisville.
Who is favored?
The model projects Louisville by 25.4 (94% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Stanford lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →