Wake Forest vs Louisville
Wake Forest visit Louisville in Week 4. The model favors Louisville by 12.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market sit almost on top of each other. SP+ rates Louisville 13.3 (25th) against Wake Forest's 3.6 (63rd), a gap of nearly ten points that projects Louisville by 12.1. The consensus line lands at Louisville -12.5 with a 58.5 total, and win probabilities barely separate: the model gives Louisville 77 percent, the market 78 percent, and the ProphetX exchange 81 percent at -435. When SP+, two books, and the exchange converge inside four points of implied probability, the disagreement worth trading is thin.
The unit splits explain the number. Louisville's offense ranks 18th against a Wake Forest defense at 51st, while Wake's 72nd-ranked offense faces a Louisville defense at 40th. Results this season track the ratings: Louisville beat Villanova 59-13 and SMU 41-31 after a 41-38 loss at Ole Miss, while Wake Forest edged Purdue 38-36 and lost to Miami 20-33. The series favors Louisville 6-3, and the last meeting in 2022 went 48-21. Season simulations frame the tiers, projecting Louisville at 7.8 wins and 17.2 percent Playoff odds against Wake Forest's 6.6 wins and 1.1 percent.
Model and market lock together on Louisville by roughly 12, and the ratings gap backs it, leaving little edge on either side.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Wake Forest's win price; Louisville's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Wake Forest is favored, below it Louisville is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Wake Forest vs Louisville game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Wake Forest vs Louisville market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Wake Forest and Louisville play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Louisville.
Who is favored?
The model projects Louisville by 12.1 (77% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Louisville lead 6-3 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →