SMU vs Louisville
SMU visit Louisville in Week 3. The model favors Louisville by 3.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ rates SMU higher, 15.3 and 19th against Louisville's 14.1 and 23rd, yet still projects the home side by 1.2 points and splits the game 53/47 toward Louisville. The consensus line across two books lands in the same place at Louisville -1.2 with a total of 59.3, and its implied 53/47 matches the model exactly. ProphetX pushes marginally further, offering Louisville -117 for 54% and SMU +115 for 47%. Model and market are effectively one number here, a coin flip nudged by home field.
The unit ranks argue the other way. SMU's offense (16) and defense (23) both grade ahead of Louisville's offense (22) and defense (26), and the series is one-sided: Louisville is 0-2 against SMU, with the 2025 meeting a 38-6 rout. Nothing in the ratings gap or the head-to-head record explains why the visitor is priced as a slight underdog beyond location.
Results so far cut both ways. SMU is 2-0, having won 27-24 at Florida State and 56-10 over UC Davis, while Louisville split with a 59-13 handling of Villanova and a 38-41 loss at Ole Miss. The season sims lean SMU: 8.5 projected wins, 25.9% to reach the Playoff and 1.3% to win the title against 0.7% priced in, versus Louisville's 7.3 wins, 14.4% and 0.8%.
Model and market both price a near coin flip, but SMU's unit ranks, 2-0 start and 2-0 series edge sit under a contract trading it as a dog.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as SMU's win price; Louisville's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line SMU is favored, below it Louisville is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the SMU vs Louisville game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the SMU vs Louisville market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do SMU and Louisville play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Louisville.
Who is favored?
The model projects Louisville by 3.7 (59% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
SMU lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →