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Matchup preview

Kentucky vs Tennessee

Kentucky visit Tennessee in Week 10. The model favors Tennessee by 9.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
28%
72%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
TENN -6
Total (O/U)
49.5
Favorite
TENN
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Kentucky35%-5 ptsvsTennessee65%+5 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Kentucky favoredTennessee favoredOct 25Oct 28Oct 31Nov 3Nov 6Nov 7

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kentucky's win price; Tennessee's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kentucky is favored, below it Tennessee is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#31SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#11
#47FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#19
1465EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1787
0.7%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.1.1%
KentuckyTennesseesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Tennessee lead 10-2
Tennessee have won the last 5
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
56-34
Tennessee
at Kentucky
2024
28-18
Tennessee
at Tennessee
2023
33-27
Tennessee
at Kentucky
2022
44-6
Tennessee
at Tennessee
2021
45-42
Tennessee
at Kentucky
2020
34-7
Kentucky
at Tennessee
2019
17-13
Tennessee
at Kentucky
2018
24-7
Tennessee
at Tennessee
2017
29-26
Kentucky
at Kentucky
2016
49-36
Tennessee
at Tennessee
2015
52-21
Tennessee
at Kentucky
2014
50-16
Tennessee
at Tennessee
More Week 10 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Kentucky vs Tennessee game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kentucky vs Tennessee market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Kentucky and Tennessee play?

Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Tennessee.

Who is favored?

The model projects Tennessee by 9.7 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Tennessee lead 10-2 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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