South Alabama vs Kentucky
South Alabama visit Kentucky in Week 4. The model favors Kentucky by 21.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ pegs Kentucky at 6.5 (49th) against South Alabama at -12.1 (111th), an 18.6-point ratings gap that projects to a Kentucky margin of 21. The model lands on Kentucky 90%, and the market barely blinks: the consensus line of -20.5 implies 89%, while the ProphetX exchange sits at -1200, or 92%. Across price, projection and exchange offer, the disagreement is negligible, and the total of 54.5 frames a comfortable but not runaway spread.
The unit ranks explain the separation. Kentucky grades out at #57 on offense and #43 on defense; South Alabama counters with a #86 offense and a #127 defense that is the clearest hole on the board. Season results cut against the ratings, though: South Alabama has scored 39, 24 and 41 in wins over SE Louisiana and Ohio and a narrow loss at Tulane, while Kentucky was buried 17-45 by Alabama between wins over Youngstown State and at Texas A&M.
The simulations muddy the outlook. South Alabama projects to 6.4 wins against Kentucky's 5.7, yet Kentucky carries the Playoff edge at 1.3% to 0.2%, with market title odds of 0.8% versus the model's 0.1%. For this game the number is the story: model and market converge near 90%, leaving little daylight to trade against the 21-point projection.
Model and market lock arm in arm near 90% for Kentucky, and the 21-point projection sits right on the -20.5 line.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as South Alabama's win price; Kentucky's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line South Alabama is favored, below it Kentucky is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the South Alabama vs Kentucky game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the South Alabama vs Kentucky market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do South Alabama and Kentucky play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Kentucky.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kentucky by 21.5 (90% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →