Kansas vs Kansas State
Kansas visit Kansas State in Week 7. The model favors Kansas State by 8.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ and the consensus line agree on direction but not degree. The model rates Kansas State 11 (33rd) against Kansas at 7.2 (50th), a gap that projects Kansas State by 6.2 and a 65% win probability. The two-book consensus sits softer at Kansas State -4.7 with a 55.5 total, implying 61%. Unit ranks favor the home side's offense (#28 to #49) while the defenses are close (#46 to #43), consistent with a mid-single-digit edge rather than a rout.
The ProphetX exchange runs the other way: Kansas -186 implies 65% for the visitor, directly contradicting both the model and the consensus line that favor Kansas State. That is the sharpest disagreement on the board. Series history leans hard one direction, with Kansas 0-12 all-time and a 42-17 loss in the 2025 meeting.
Season form reads mixed for both. Kansas is 2-3, routing Long Island 51-6 and Middle Tennessee 55-0 but falling to Missouri, Arizona State, and 24-41 at Utah. Kansas State is 3-2, opening with wins over Nicholls, Washington State, and Tulane before dropping 26-31 at Cincinnati and 16-35 to Houston. Projected win totals (6.9 to 5.1) and Playoff odds (4.6% to 0.6%) keep Kansas State ahead for the year.
Model and consensus both back Kansas State by mid-single digits, but the exchange prices Kansas at 65%, a stark split against the series history.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kansas's win price; Kansas State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kansas is favored, below it Kansas State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kansas vs Kansas State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kansas vs Kansas State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kansas and Kansas State play?
Week 7 of 2026, on Oct 17, 2026 at Kansas State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kansas State by 8.4 (69% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Kansas State lead 12-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →