Tulane vs Kansas State
Tulane visit Kansas State in Week 3. The model favors Kansas State by 22.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: Kansas State rates 13.9 (24th) against Tulane at -6 (88th), and the model projects a 22.3-point Kansas State margin with a 91% win probability. The consensus line of Kansas State -20.5 and the ProphetX price of -1150 (implied 92%) sit close to that read, with the market's 89% only marginally softer. The model favors Kansas State by nearly two points more than the posted spread, a thin edge rather than a disagreement.
The unit ranks explain the gap. Kansas State's offense (#14) faces a Tulane defense ranked 83rd, while Tulane's offense (#105) draws a Kansas State defense at #40. Early results reinforce the ratings: Kansas State opened 71-3 over Nicholls and 34-7 over Washington State, whereas Tulane fell 3-17 at Duke before scraping past South Alabama 28-24. On form, one side has produced margin and the other has struggled to score.
The series is even at 1-1, with Kansas State taking the 2024 meeting 34-27, a reminder the projected total of 49.5 has recent precedent. Season simulations separate the programs: Kansas State projects 8.2 wins and 18.7% Playoff odds, Tulane 5.9 wins and 1%. Title markets price both at 0.7%, against model figures of 0.8% and 0% respectively.
Model and market align on a comfortable Kansas State win, with SP+ leaning fractionally past the -20.5 spread.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Tulane's win price; Kansas State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Tulane is favored, below it Kansas State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Tulane vs Kansas State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Tulane vs Kansas State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Tulane and Kansas State play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Kansas State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kansas State by 22.4 (91% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →