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Matchup preview

Houston vs Kansas State

Houston visit Kansas State in Week 6. The model favors Houston by 2.1. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
55%
45%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

The read
Model analysis · October 7 · refreshed weekly

SP+ separates these Big 12 teams by just 1.9 points, rating Kansas State 14 (23rd) against Houston at 12.1 (30th), and projects the Wildcats by 4.3 with a 60 percent win probability. The consensus line sits at Kansas State -2.5 with a 55.5 total, implying 56 percent, and the ProphetX exchange echoes that at Kansas State -128 (56 percent) versus Houston +120 (45 percent). The model therefore reads Kansas State roughly four points more favorably than the market does.

Unit ranks frame the edges. Houston's offense (15th) draws the better matchup against a Kansas State defense ranked 34th, while the Wildcats' offense (21st) works against a Houston defense ranked 53rd. The series is level at 1-1, with Houston taking the last meeting 24-19 in 2024.

Form favors Houston's resume: 4-1 with wins over Oregon State (33-20), Southern (77-6), Georgia Southern (42-28) and UCF (27-17), the lone loss 26-28 at Texas Tech. Kansas State is 3-1, beating Nicholls 71-3, Washington State 34-7 and Tulane 31-20 before falling 26-31 at Cincinnati. Simulations give Kansas State 8 projected wins and 15.3 percent Playoff odds to Houston's 7.8 and 10.4 percent.

The model leans Wildcats harder than the market, but Houston's 53rd-ranked defense and an even series keep this a live underdog at +120.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 2 books
Spread
KSU -2.5
Total (O/U)
55
Favorite
KSU
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)

Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#22SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#39
#50FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#38
1512EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1674
0.7%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.0.7%
HoustonKansas Statesolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 1-1
20232024
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2024
24-19
Houston
at Houston
2023
41-0
Kansas State
at Kansas State
More Week 6 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Houston vs Kansas State game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Houston vs Kansas State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Houston and Kansas State play?

Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at Kansas State.

Who is favored?

The model projects Houston by 2.1 (55% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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