Kansas State vs Cincinnati
Kansas State visit Cincinnati in Week 4. The model favors Kansas State by 4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these Big 12 sides by 6.4 points, rating Kansas State 14.4 (24th) against Cincinnati's 8 (42nd), and projects a Kansas State win by 4 with a 60% model probability. The market leans harder: Cincinnati +6.3 and a 55.5 total imply Kansas State at 65%, while the ProphetX exchange stretches further to -220, a 69% clip against Cincinnati's +210 (32%). Every layer favors the visitor, the only question is degree, and the exchange prices in roughly nine points more conviction than the model carries.
The unit ranks explain the tilt. Kansas State grades out at #17 on offense and #33 on defense, both cleaner than Cincinnati's #30 and #62. That defensive gap is the widest split on the board and squares with the 41-15 result the last time these teams met in 2024, the only prior meeting. Season form muddies it slightly: Kansas State opened 71-3, 34-7 and 31-20, while Cincinnati sits 3-0 but survived Miami (OH) 35-31.
Longer view, the simulations give Kansas State 8.5 projected wins, 21.7% Playoff odds and a 1% title mark against a market read of 0.8%. Cincinnati trails at 7.1 wins, 5.3% and 0.2%. The market's extra half-touchdown over the model is the edge to weigh.
Model, market and exchange all back Kansas State, with the exchange's 69% pricing running well ahead of SP+'s 60%.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kansas State's win price; Cincinnati's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kansas State is favored, below it Cincinnati is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kansas State vs Cincinnati game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kansas State vs Cincinnati market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kansas State and Cincinnati play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Cincinnati.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kansas State by 4 (60% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Kansas State lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →