Oklahoma State vs Kansas State
Oklahoma State visit Kansas State in Week 10. The model favors Oklahoma State by 1.2. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ sees a close game: Oklahoma State at 12.4 (23rd) against Kansas State at 8.8 (39th), a 3.6-point rating edge that translates to a projected Oklahoma State margin of 1.2 and a 53% win probability. The market is far more committed to the Cowboys. The consensus line of Kansas State +5.5 implies 63% for Oklahoma State, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further to -200, or 67%. That 10 to 14 point gap between the model's coin-flip and the priced favorite is the central disagreement here.
The unit ranks explain some of the lean: Oklahoma State's offense ranks 11th against a Kansas State defense at 45th, though the Cowboys' 52nd-ranked defense faces a Wildcats offense at 40th. The series is dead even at 6-6, and Kansas State took the last meeting in 2025 by 14-6, a result that cuts against the current market direction.
Results add nuance. Oklahoma State sits with wins over Oregon (39-31), West Virginia (41-24), UCF (42-28) and Colorado (57-24), but has dropped three, including 49-51 at Iowa State. Kansas State has alternated, beating Kansas 35-24 while losing four, among them 16-35 to Houston and 24-27 at Colorado. Projected at 7.3 wins versus 6, Oklahoma State is the sounder profile, but not by the margin the price demands.
The model splits this nearly even at 53% Oklahoma State, while both the market and exchange price the Cowboys far steeper near 63 to 67%.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Oklahoma State's win price; Kansas State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Oklahoma State is favored, below it Kansas State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Oklahoma State vs Kansas State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Oklahoma State vs Kansas State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Oklahoma State and Kansas State play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Kansas State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Oklahoma State by 1.2 (53% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Series even 6-6 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →