Washington State vs Kansas State
Washington State visit Kansas State in Week 2. The model favors Kansas State by 22.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these teams cleanly: Kansas State rates 12.7 (23rd) against Washington State at -3.7 (79th), a spread that projects a Kansas State win by 18.8 points and an 87% win probability. The market barely disagrees. The consensus line sits at Kansas State -19.2 with a total of 48.8 and an implied 88%, while the ProphetX exchange pushes further to 90% (Kansas State -940, Washington State +810 at 11%). Little daylight between the model and the price.
The unit splits reinforce the mismatch. Kansas State's offense ranks 15th to Washington State's 107th, while the defenses sit closer at 40th against 56th. Early results echo the ratings: Kansas State opened with a 71-3 rout of Nicholls, and Washington State fell 10-24 at Washington. The projected total leans on the host's scoring, not the visitor's.
Season simulations frame the stakes across 10,000 runs. Kansas State projects 8.1 wins, 17.6% to make the Playoff and a 0.6% title probability against market title odds of 0.7%. Washington State projects 4.9 wins, 0.1% to reach the Playoff and 0% to win it. Nothing in the numbers argues against the favorite here.
Model and market read this identically: Kansas State a heavy favorite by nearly three scores, with no numerical case for the visitor.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Washington State's win price; Kansas State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Washington State is favored, below it Kansas State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Washington State vs Kansas State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Washington State vs Kansas State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Washington State and Kansas State play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Kansas State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kansas State by 22.4 (91% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →