Kansas State vs Colorado
Kansas State visit Colorado in Week 9. The model favors Kansas State by 10.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market disagree sharply. SP+ rates Kansas State 8.8 (39th) against Colorado at -4.3 (93rd), a gap that projects Kansas State by 10.7 and a 74% win probability. The consensus line tells a different story: Colorado +1.3 with a total of 47.5 implies just 53% for Kansas State, and the ProphetX exchange is tighter still at -103 to +100, essentially even. That 21-point probability spread between model and price is the central tension here.
Unit ranks back the model: Kansas State grades 40th on offense and 45th on defense, while Colorado sits 103rd and 71st. The series favors Kansas State 2-0, including a 24-14 win in 2025. Season form is split, Kansas State 4-3 with wins over Kansas (35-24) and Tulane (31-20) against losses to Houston (16-35) and Arizona State (17-28), while Colorado is 2-5 and has been buried in defeats including Oklahoma State (24-57) and Texas Tech (7-29). Season outlooks project 6.6 wins for Kansas State versus 3.7 for Colorado, with market title odds at 0.8%.
SP+ sees a double-digit Kansas State win while the market prices a coin flip, the widest gap worth watching.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Kansas State's win price; Colorado's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Kansas State is favored, below it Colorado is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Kansas State vs Colorado game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Kansas State vs Colorado market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Kansas State and Colorado play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Colorado.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kansas State by 10.7 (74% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Kansas State lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →