Western Kentucky vs Indiana
Western Kentucky visit Indiana in Week 3. The model favors Indiana by 44.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch with little room for dispute. Indiana rates 25.4 (rank 5) against Western Kentucky at -13.3 (rank 116), a gap that yields a 99% model win probability and a projected Indiana margin of 41.1 points. The market runs even harder in the same direction, setting Indiana -44.2 with a 60.3 total and an implied 100% to 0% split. That three-point spread between the model margin and the consensus line is the only real disagreement on the board, and it tilts toward heavier Indiana exposure.
The unit ratings reinforce the ceiling. Indiana ranks #9 on offense and #8 on defense; Western Kentucky sits #101 and #125. Early results track the profile: Indiana opened 52-16 over North Texas and 55-0 over Howard, while Western Kentucky lost at Nevada 14-49 and at Georgia 20-70. The series favors Indiana 3-0, though the last meeting in 2022 was a 33-30 escape, the lone note suggesting the projected blowout is not automatic.
Longer view, the simulations separate the programs entirely. Western Kentucky projects to 4.8 wins with 0% Playoff and 0% title odds, while Indiana projects to 9.4 wins, 62% to reach the Playoff, and 6.8% to win it. That model title figure sits just under the market's 7.6%, a modest premium the market attaches to Indiana beyond what the ratings support.
The numbers point one direction only: Indiana by five-plus scores, with the market pricing the rout slightly steeper than the model.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Western Kentucky's win price; Indiana's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Western Kentucky is favored, below it Indiana is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Western Kentucky vs Indiana game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Western Kentucky vs Indiana market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Western Kentucky and Indiana play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at Indiana.
Who is favored?
The model projects Indiana by 44.7 (100% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Indiana lead 3-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →