Minnesota vs Indiana
Minnesota visit Indiana in Week 9. The model favors Indiana by 22.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and the market are reading this one the same way. SP+ rates Indiana 24.2 (sixth) against Minnesota at 3.9 (57th), and projects Indiana by 22.7. The consensus line of Indiana -20.7 sits two points short of that figure, the lone sliver of daylight. Win probability lines up cleanly: the model gives Indiana 92 percent, the market 90 percent, and the ProphetX exchange prices Indiana at -1250, an implied 93 percent, with Minnesota offered at +980.
The ratings gap is built on units. Indiana ranks 15th on offense and second on defense; Minnesota pairs a 93rd-ranked offense with a steadier 27th defense. Series history cuts the other way but is thin and stale: Minnesota holds a 2-0 edge, last meeting a 35-14 win in 2021, before either current profile existed.
Results reinforce the numbers. Indiana is 7-1, with the only loss 15-19 to Ohio State and shutouts of Howard and Western Kentucky, plus a 13-6 road win at Michigan. Minnesota is 5-2 but uneven, blown out 13-38 at home by Mississippi State and 13-41 at Purdue, with a 20-14 win over Michigan and a 13-10 grind past Iowa. The simulations frame the stakes: Indiana projects 10.1 wins and 74.1 percent Playoff odds against Minnesota's 6.7 and 1.2 percent.
Model, market, and exchange all converge on Indiana by roughly three touchdowns, with only the two-point line gap left to argue.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Minnesota's win price; Indiana's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Minnesota is favored, below it Indiana is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Minnesota vs Indiana game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Minnesota vs Indiana market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Minnesota and Indiana play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Indiana.
Who is favored?
The model projects Indiana by 22.7 (92% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Minnesota lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →