North Texas vs Indiana
North Texas visit Indiana in Week 1. The model favors Indiana by 37.4. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
Model and market sit on the same side with little daylight between them. SP+ rates Indiana 25.8 (rank 5) against North Texas at -11.6 (rank 105) and projects an Indiana margin of 39.8 points. The consensus line across two books lands at Indiana -40.2 with a 55.5 total, so the market prices the Hoosiers a shade steeper than the model, a 0.4-point gap. Both frameworks converge on the same win probability: Indiana 99%, North Texas 1%.
The unit ranks explain the chasm. Indiana grades #7 on offense and #4 on defense; North Texas checks in at #88 and #121. Season simulations reinforce the tiers: Indiana projects 9.2 wins with a 65.6% Playoff chance and 7.7% title odds, against a market title price of 8.8%. North Texas projects 5.1 wins, 0.2% to reach the Playoff and 0% to win it, with the market at 0.7%. The series offers one data point, Indiana 1-0, and the only prior meeting, a 49-24 Indiana win in 2014, fits the pattern the ratings describe.
Model and market agree almost exactly: Indiana at 99%, laying roughly 40 points against a bottom-tier North Texas.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as North Texas's win price; Indiana's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line North Texas is favored, below it Indiana is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the North Texas vs Indiana game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the North Texas vs Indiana market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do North Texas and Indiana play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 5, 2026 at Indiana.
Who is favored?
The model projects Indiana by 37.4 (99% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Indiana lead 1-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →