Northwestern vs Indiana
Northwestern visit Indiana in Week 4. The model favors Indiana by 20.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The model and market land in near lockstep on this one. SP+ rates Indiana 25.8 (fourth) against Northwestern's 7.7 (44th), an 18.1-point ratings gap that produces a projected Indiana margin of 20.5 and an 89% win probability. The consensus line of Indiana -21 with a 49.5 total implies 90%, and the ProphetX exchange pushes further, offering Indiana at -1400 (93%) and Northwestern at +1150 (8%). Across model, book and exchange, the disagreement is only a few points of implied probability.
The unit ranks explain the spread. Indiana carries the seventh offense and third defense; Northwestern pairs a 28th-ranked defense with a 63rd-ranked offense. Results reinforce it: Indiana has posted 52-16, 55-0 and 38-0, with two shutouts, while Northwestern won 34-18 over South Dakota State and 41-7 over Colorado. The defensive matchup is Northwestern's one edge on paper, but the offensive gulf is wide.
Series history is thin and favors the host: Indiana leads 2-1 and took the 2024 meeting 41-24. The season simulations separate them sharply, with Indiana projected for 9.4 wins, a 64.2% Playoff chance and 8% title odds against a market read of 8.8%, while Northwestern sits at 6.4 wins and 2.8% to reach the Playoff.
Model, book and exchange all converge on Indiana near 90%, and a 20.5-point projected margin leaves Northwestern little numerical room.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Northwestern's win price; Indiana's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Northwestern is favored, below it Indiana is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Northwestern vs Indiana game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Northwestern vs Indiana market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Northwestern and Indiana play?
Week 4 of 2026, on Sep 26, 2026 at Indiana.
Who is favored?
The model projects Indiana by 20.5 (89% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Indiana lead 2-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →