Wake Forest vs Purdue
Wake Forest visit Purdue in Week 2. The model favors Wake Forest by 3.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a virtual tie: Wake Forest rates 1.6 (67th), Purdue 1.2 (68th), a gap of four tenths that yields a projected Purdue margin of 2 points and a 55 to 45 edge to the host. The market disagrees on direction. The consensus line has Purdue +3 with an implied 43%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Wake Forest at -136 (58%) against Purdue at +132 (43%). So the model's slight home lean runs into a market that installs the visitor as the favorite.
The unit ranks explain the tension. Wake Forest pairs a weak offense (87th) with a stronger defense (43rd), while Purdue sits at 67th on both sides, balanced but unexceptional. Season projections track the market: Wake Forest is modeled for 6.2 wins and a 1.5% Playoff chance, Purdue for 4.8 wins and 0.4%, neither with a title path.
Early results are thin and one-sided in each team's favor: Wake Forest handled Akron 38-16, Purdue beat Indiana State 44-19. Both are Week 1 tune-ups that do little to break the near-even rating, leaving the model-market split as the story on a 49.8 total.
The model leans Purdue by a hair while both market venues price Wake Forest as the favorite, a clean disagreement on a coin-flip game.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Wake Forest's win price; Purdue's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Wake Forest is favored, below it Purdue is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Wake Forest vs Purdue game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Wake Forest vs Purdue market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Wake Forest and Purdue play?
Week 2 of 2026, on Sep 12, 2026 at Purdue.
Who is favored?
The model projects Wake Forest by 3.3 (58% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →