Virginia vs Wake Forest
Virginia visit Wake Forest in Week 9. The model favors Wake Forest by 8.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ separates these ACC sides cleanly: Wake Forest rates 12.2 (26th) against Virginia's 5.8 (54th), and the model turns that into a 70% Wake Forest win probability and an 8.8-point projected margin. The market pushes harder. The consensus line of -12.5 implies 78%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Wake Forest at -440, or 81%, against Virginia +420 at 19%. That is a 3.7-point gap between the model's number and the spread, with the exchange and the model disagreeing by eleven points of implied probability.
The unit ranks explain the edge. Wake Forest's offense (29th) outclasses Virginia's (65th), while the defenses sit close together at 35th and 36th. Season form tracks that read: Wake Forest is 6-1 with wins at Purdue, Louisville, NC State and California, Virginia 5-3 with three losses by double digits, including 7-38 at Florida State. The total is set at 49.5.
The series leans Wake Forest 4-1, and the 2025 meeting went 16-9 in a low-scoring game that undercuts the 49.5 total. The model and market agree on the favorite; they disagree on the price, with the number landing between 8.8 and 12.5.
SP+ makes Wake Forest a clear favorite, but the model's 8.8-point margin sits well inside the market's 12.5.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Virginia's win price; Wake Forest's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Virginia is favored, below it Wake Forest is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Virginia vs Wake Forest game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Virginia vs Wake Forest market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Virginia and Wake Forest play?
Week 9 of 2026, on Oct 31, 2026 at Wake Forest.
Who is favored?
The model projects Wake Forest by 8.8 (70% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Wake Forest lead 4-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →