Akron vs Wake Forest
Akron visit Wake Forest in Week 1. The model favors Wake Forest by 26.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch across every layer. Wake Forest rates 3.4 (57th) against Akron at -22.9 (130th), a gap that yields a projected margin of 28.7 points and a 96% model win probability for the home side. The unit ranks reinforce it: Wake Forest's defense (31st) and offense (80th) both sit well clear of Akron's offense (137th) and defense (112th), so the projection leans on strength on both sides of the ball rather than one outlier.
Model and market broadly align but not exactly. The consensus line sets Wake Forest -24.5 with a 48.5 total and a 93% implied win probability, while the ProphetX exchange prices the Deacons at -2200 (96%) and Akron at +1650 (6%). The exchange sits right on the model's read, but the 24.5-point spread trails the 28.7 projected margin by roughly four points, a modest edge toward Wake Forest against the number.
Season simulations keep expectations grounded. Across 10,000 runs Wake Forest projects to 6.1 wins with a 2.5% Playoff chance, while Akron projects to 4 wins with 0% Playoff odds. This is a Week 1 separation game, not a resume builder.
The numbers point one way: Wake Forest by nearly four touchdowns, with the exchange on the model and the spread a touch soft.
Real consensus line across 3 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Akron's win price; Wake Forest's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Akron is favored, below it Wake Forest is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Sep 23.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Akron vs Wake Forest game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Akron vs Wake Forest market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Akron and Wake Forest play?
Week 1 of 2026, on Sep 3, 2026 at Wake Forest.
Who is favored?
The model projects Wake Forest by 26.8 (95% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →