Wake Forest vs NC State
Wake Forest visit NC State in Week 6. The model favors Wake Forest by 10.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The SP+ ratings frame this as a coin flip: Wake Forest sits at 3.7 (57th) and NC State at 3.4 (59th), a gap of three tenths of a point. The model nudges the home side forward, giving NC State a 55% win probability and a projected margin of 2.1 points. The market leans the other way, pricing NC State at +3.5 and implying 42% for the Wolfpack against 58% for Wake Forest. That split, model on NC State by two, market on Wake Forest by three and a half, is the central disagreement, and the posted total of 59.5 points signals expectations of scoring.
Unit ranks sketch the stylistic edges. NC State owns the better offense at 37th but the weaker defense at 84th, while Wake Forest is more balanced with offense 50th and defense 63rd. That pairing, an efficient Wolfpack attack against a soft Wolfpack defense, fits the elevated total. Series history favors the home team, NC State leading 7-5 and taking the last meeting 34-24 in 2025.
Form adds nuance. Wake Forest enters 4-1, with wins over Akron, Purdue, Louisville and a 57-3 rout of Stanford, the lone loss to Miami. NC State is 3-2, beating Richmond, App State and Louisville but falling at Virginia and Vanderbilt. Season simulations project 7.6 wins for Wake Forest and 6.8 for NC State, with Playoff odds under 2% for each.
Near-identical SP+ ratings, but the model favors NC State by 2.1 while the market makes Wake Forest a 3.5-point road choice.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Wake Forest's win price; NC State's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Wake Forest is favored, below it NC State is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Wake Forest vs NC State game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Wake Forest vs NC State market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Wake Forest and NC State play?
Week 6 of 2026, on Oct 10, 2026 at NC State.
Who is favored?
The model projects Wake Forest by 10.7 (74% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
NC State lead 7-5 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →