UCF vs Kansas
UCF visit Kansas in Week 10. The model favors Kansas by 0.7. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ actually grades UCF as the stronger team, rating the Knights 4.5 (56th) against Kansas at 2.8 (60th), yet the model still lands on Kansas at 52% and a projected margin of just 0.7 points. The market leans harder on the hosts: a consensus Kansas -3 with a 48.5 total implies 57%, and the ProphetX exchange prices Kansas at -146 (59%) versus UCF +142 (41%). That is a five to seven point probability gap between model and market, all of it tied to the home side the ratings themselves do not favor.
The unit splits are tight and unremarkable. UCF pairs the 63rd offense with the 43rd defense, Kansas the 61st offense with the 57th defense, so UCF holds the only clear edge on the defensive side. Results reinforce the coin-flip framing: UCF is 4-4 with wins over TCU 21-13 and BYU 39-31 but a 9-41 loss to Baylor, while Kansas sits 2-6, beating Baylor 25-24 and falling 16-22 at TCU.
History sides with Kansas, which leads the series 2-0 and took the 2025 meeting 27-20. Season projections stay modest, UCF at 6.3 wins and Kansas at 4.7, with neither above 0.5% to reach the Playoff.
The model calls it a near even game with UCF the higher-rated side, but the market and exchange both price Kansas five-plus points more confidently.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as UCF's win price; Kansas's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line UCF is favored, below it Kansas is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the UCF vs Kansas game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the UCF vs Kansas market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do UCF and Kansas play?
Week 10 of 2026, on Nov 7, 2026 at Kansas.
Who is favored?
The model projects Kansas by 0.7 (52% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
Kansas lead 2-0 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →