BYU vs UCF
BYU visit UCF in Week 8. The model favors BYU by 9.8. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
SP+ frames this as a mismatch: BYU rates 20.6 (ninth) against UCF at 4 (57th), a gap that produces an 81% model win probability and a projected 14.2-point BYU margin. The unit splits reinforce it, with BYU's offense at 17 and defense at 9 overshadowing UCF's 80th offense and 40th defense. The market is far more cautious, pricing UCF at +6.5 with a 43.5 total and implying only 65% for BYU. The ProphetX exchange sits between the two camps, offering BYU at -235 for a 70% implied read against UCF's +220, or 31%. The model's 16-point edge over the market-implied line is the central disagreement to price.
Form backs the ratings order. BYU arrives 6-0, with wins over TCU 17-10, Iowa State 24-10 and Notre Dame 28-24 after a 41-23 result at Colorado State. UCF is 3-3, having split its TCU meeting (21-13 win) but falling at Pittsburgh 7-12, at Houston 17-27 and at Oklahoma State 28-42. The series favors BYU 3-1, and last year's meeting went 41-21. Season simulations widen the separation: BYU projects to 10.2 wins with 60.6% Playoff odds, UCF to 5.9 wins and 0.6%.
Model (81%) and exchange (70%) both sit well above the market's 65%, flagging BYU as the value side of a wide ratings gap.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as BYU's win price; UCF's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line BYU is favored, below it UCF is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Nov 7.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the BYU vs UCF game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the BYU vs UCF market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do BYU and UCF play?
Week 8 of 2026, on Oct 24, 2026 at UCF.
Who is favored?
The model projects BYU by 9.8 (72% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
What is the all-time series?
BYU lead 3-1 over the meetings in our records.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →