Georgia State vs UCF
Georgia State visit UCF in Week 3. The model favors UCF by 11.3. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.
The ratings gap is stark: UCF sits at 5.6 (rank 53) against Georgia State at -21.6 (rank 134), a spread that drives SP+ to a 29.6-point projected margin and a 96% UCF win probability. The unit splits point the same way, with UCF's defense at #29 towering over Georgia State's #137, while Georgia State's #118 offense draws the harder assignment. On paper this is a mismatch across every layer.
Direction is unanimous, magnitude is not. The consensus line of UCF -18.2 implies 86%, and ProphetX offers push UCF to -940, or 90%, with Georgia State at +830 (11%). Both trail the model's 96%, leaving the daylight between an 18.2-point market number and the 29.6-point projection as the central disagreement to price.
Results add nuance. Georgia State is 2-0 (59-10, 31-17) but against lighter competition, and its simulation projects just 5 wins with no Playoff path. UCF blitzed Bethune-Cookman 73-6 yet stumbled 7-12 at Pittsburgh, a floor that helps explain why the market holds short of the model, alongside 6.1 projected wins and a 3% Playoff chance.
SP+ prices this as a near-lock, and every market agrees on direction while haggling over the size of the UCF win.
Real consensus line across 2 sportsbooks. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.
Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Georgia State's win price; UCF's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Georgia State is favored, below it UCF is, and each candle takes the favored team's color. Kalshi shows open-high-low-close candles (filled body closed up, hollow closed down). As of Oct 16.
What these metrics mean
Frequently asked questions
How do I trade the Georgia State vs UCF game?
Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Georgia State vs UCF market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.
When do Georgia State and UCF play?
Week 3 of 2026, on Sep 19, 2026 at UCF.
Who is favored?
The model projects UCF by 11.3 (75% win probability), from SP+ ratings.
Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →